The authors use panel data for Mexico for 1997 to 1999 to test several assumptions regarding the impact of a conditional cash transfer program on child labor, emphasizing the differential impact on indigenous households. Using data from the conditional cash transfer program in Mexico PROGRESA (OPORTUNIDADES) they investigate the interaction between child labor and indigenous households. While indigenous children had a greater probability of working in 1997, this probability is reversed after treatment in the program. Indigenous children also had lower school attainment compared with Spanish-speaking or bilingual children. After the program, school attainment among indigenous children increased, reducing the gap.
Globally, the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is rising. The most affected populations are those that have undergone recent and rapid transition towards a Western lifestyle, characterised by energy-dense diets and physical inactivity.¶ Two major hypotheses have attempted to explain the variation in diabetes prevalence, both between and within populations, beyond the contributions made by adult lifestyle. The thrifty genotype hypothesis proposes that some populations are genetically well adapted to surviving in a subsistence environment, and are predisposed to develop diabetes when the dietary environment changes to one that is fat and carbohydrate rich. The programming hypothesis focuses on the developmental environment, particularly on prenatal and early postnatal conditions: nutritional deprivation in utero and early postnatal life, measured by low birthweight and disrupted child growth, is proposed to alter metabolism permanently so that risk of diabetes is increased with subsequent exposure to an energy-dense diet. Both hypotheses emphasise discord between adaptation (genetic or developmental) and current environment, and both now put forward insulin resistance as a likely mechanism for predisposition.¶ Diabetes contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality among Australia’s Indigenous population. Indigenous babies are more likely to be low birthweight...
By the 1970s, the Indigenous population had undergone a series of systematic fluctuations in fertility and mortality levels, uneven over space and time, but ultimately comprehensive and uniform in effect. Current interest is on progress in the prevailing demographic regime of declining natural growth rates based on reductions in both fertility and mortality, with recent trends suggesting that this process may be stalled. Also of interest is the emergence of additional contributors to Indigenous population growth. These include Indigenous births to non-Indigenous women as well as an increased propensity for individuals to declare Indigenous status on census forms. In the more distant past, sociological and political processes have effectively excluded or devalued Indigenous representation in official statistics. In the more recent politics of data collection, efforts are made to encourage identification.; no
The recent release of the final results for the 2001 Census presents an opportunity to assess the net change in employment outcomes for Indigenous Australians for the period covering the first two Howard administrations. This paper uses demographic techniques to make valid comparisons over time, and hence facilitate estimates of future employment levels against projected population growth. The 2001 Census data reveal no improvement in the overall position of Indigenous people in the labour market since 1996. Because of a growing Indigenous working-age population, new estimates of future job growth point to a lowering of employment rates and rising unemployment over the remainder of this decade. Overall, the current fiscal cost of this failure to eradicate Indigenous employment disparity is massive—in 2001 it was estimated to be around 0.5 per cent of Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Findings from this new analysis indicate that the cost will be even higher in the future.; no
Recent projections made by the Australian Bureau Statistics (ABS) of Indigenous populations resident in various regions of north Australia included a set of estimates for Cape York Peninsula. These were found to be substantially at odds with the results for adjacent regions such as the West Arnhem and Gulf regions of the Northern Territory. The Cape York projections produced population growth rates that were substantially lower than those recorded for other regions, with projected numbers in certain age groups actually declining over the forecast period to 2016. Two factors were regarded as responsible for this outcome:
· a deficient 1996 estimated resident population (ERP), and · a lack of regionally-derived age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs).
This paper seeks to redress these shortcomings by presenting an alternative and improved set of 1996 population estimates, and by applying regionally-derived ASFRs to projections from this base year. The basic strategy employed in constructing alternative population estimates was to identify other regional population counts that had some claim to credibility in terms of their coverage of the Indigenous population within the region at specified points in time. A number of such sources were identified...
A proposal to establish a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), focused on Alice Springs, has recently been submitted. Fundamental to any such proposal is an understanding of population dynamics in the desert region, because demographic information provides for assessment of the quantum of need in social and economic policy, and for assessment of the impact of that quantum in environmental policy. Ultimately, what is sought is a predictive capacity for planning and evaluation.
This paper arose out of partnership discussions between the Centre for Appropriate Technology (CAT) and Rio Tinto who commissioned the author to prepare Indigenous population projections for the desert region to 2016 and compare these with projections for the total population of the same region. The focus for this analysis is the Australian arid zone which lies approximately within the 250mm rainfall isohyet. It includes 45 per cent of the Australian land mass and a population, as at 1996, of 179,000, or 0.9 per cent of the Australian total.
Overall, the total population of the desert region is projected to increase by 10,402 between 2001 to 2016, from 179,028 to 189,430. This represents an increase of 5.8 per cent, or an average annual growth rate of 0.4 per cent...
Every five years, the national Census of Population and Housing provides a window on the demographic, social and economic characteristics of Australia’s Indigenous population. Of particular interest to demographers is the opportunity that this provides to benchmark intercensal population estimates and to estimate the components of intercensal population change. In line with each census count of Indigenous Australians since 1971, when a question on self-identified Indigenous origins was introduced, the 2001 count produced an intercensal change in numbers that cannot be explained by demographic processes alone. Unpredictability thus remains a hallmark of Indigenous population growth. In accounting for the unexplained component of population growth we refer to changes in census coverage rather than specifically to changes in propensity to identify. The former may include the latter, although to what extent is unknown. In truth, we still cannot determine the factors that contribute to non-demographic population growth, although it is possible to speculate. There is evidence of a highly systematic movement of people into the census-identified Indigenous population in 1996, and out of the population in 2001. This is suggestive of procedural or processing change...
The release of 2001 Census data provides an opportunity to evaluate the Howard government’s performance in Indigenous affairs in broad terms. One major policy shift has been the call for a more ‘practical’ reconciliation that attempts to address the immediate needs of Indigenous people in areas such as employment, health, housing and education. If practical reconciliation were a reality, then one would expect there to be some evidence of a convergence in the last two censuses in the economic and educational status of Indigenous and other Australians. Furthermore, enhancing Indigenous education is important in ensuring that Indigenous engagement with the mainstream economy is sustainable, especially in view of the skill bias evident in recent economic growth. This paper analyses recent trends in the engagement of Indigenous people with the Australian education system between 1986 and 2001. A cohort analysis of changes in educational participation is presented, along with an analysis of the differences between the level and type of educational qualifications of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians over the last four censuses. The main finding is that while there have been some absolute improvements in Indigenous educational outcomes over the period 1986 to 2001...
The Gross Product of the Northern Territory accounts for approximately 1.2% of Australian GDP. The economic growth record of NT in the past few years has been well below all Australian states and territories but the per capita income of NT remains higher than the national per capita income. Due to continued interstate migration, higher birth rate among the indigenous population and the inability of NT to attract international migrants, the Territory's population mix is slowly changing. This paper shows that the NT's economic growth rate is closely linked to the growth rate of labour force and private investment. Although the overall labour force participation-rate is almost unchanged, the male and female participation rates are moving in the opposite direction. Finally, the paper presents short-term forecasts for NT's Gross State Product per person employed, private investment and employment. The forecasting exercise shows that the cyclical pattern is likely to continue in the near future; Sajid Anwar and Bruce Prideaux; Article first published online: 13 APR 2010
The ‘error of closure’ is the population growth that cannot be accounted for either by natural increase or by quantifiable non-demographic factors. The term is somewhat misleading: since it incorporates all unquantifiable components of the increase in a population count, it is unlikely ever to be ‘closed’. This study highlights the significance of variability of Indigenous population estimates by calculating standard errors, one of the conventional measures of reliability of statistics. That is, with tongue firmly in cheek, a sense of ‘closure’ is created in the debate by documenting the variability of estimates. We introduce the Dual System Estimator method for estimating the Indigenous population, and review the international literature on its strengths and weaknesses. Once Australia’s Indigenous population has been estimated using this method, confidence intervals are compared to those produced using the traditional undercount method. The main conclusion is that Dual System Estimates of the Indigenous population are reasonably accurate at the national level. Unfortunately, this conclusion may need to be revised when regionally disaggregated data are examined. The central theme of this paper is that policy makers need to take into account the fact that Indigenous population statistics from the census are merely estimates. Given the importance of this data in the horizontal fiscal equalization funding formula...
This paper is one of a series of
analytical studies commissioned by the World Bank's
Africa Region and Water Anchor which are intended to
identify and address the future challenges of urban water
supply, sanitation and flood management in Sub-Saharan
Africa's (SSA) cities and towns. Following the terms of
reference for the assignment, and as indicated by its title,
the paper is directed at understanding and describing the
linkages and interdependencies between water management and
water security on the one hand, and urbanization, urban
planning and development on the other. The paper is
structured in six sections. Section one presents an overview
of urbanization trends in SSA. This is followed by a
discussion in Section two of what can be seen as the
corollary of the unprecedented urban population growth now
occurring and projected for SSA, large-scale urban
expansion, involving potentially massive increases in urban
land cover. This expansion has implications, also discussed
in section two, for the internal structuring of African
cities and towns...
Bolivia benefited from an overall
favorable economic evolution in the last few years,
supported by sound macro-economic indicators. Yet, economic
growth was unevenly distributed between the sectors, with
particularly extractive industries, construction and
financial services showing higher real growth rates, while
agriculture and manufacturing fell behind. This is an area
of concern for the government which-as manifested in the new
constitution-aims to foster a more balanced and equitable
growth. In its reform measures, it places a particular focus
on developing the rural areas, in which a large share of the
indigenous population lives, and on the productive sector
(agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and extractive), which
provides the livelihood for a substantial number of poor
people. This paper aims to contribute to the discussion and
on-going reform efforts by providing an evaluation of the
role the financial system could play for enhancing growth in
rural areas and the productive sector without threatening
the sector's stability. It also endeavors to update the
Bank's knowledge on the financial sector...
The past half-century has seen enormous
changes in the demographic makeup of Latin America and the
Caribbean (LAC). In the 1950s, LAC had a small population of
about 160 million people, less than today's population
of Brazil. Two-thirds of Latin Americans lived in rural
areas. Families were large and women had one of the highest
fertility rates in the world, low levels of education, and
few opportunities for work outside the household.
Investments in health and education reached only a small
fraction of the children, many of whom died before reaching
age five. Since then, the size of the LAC population has
tripled and the mostly rural population has been transformed
into a largely urban population. There have been steep
reductions in child mortality, and investments in health and
education have increased, today reaching a majority of
children. Fertility has been more than halved and the
opportunities for women in education and for work outside
the household have improved significantly. Life expectancy
has grown by 22 years. Less obvious to the casual observer...
Pastoralists' indigenous knowledge
(IK) about ecology and social organization led to
rangeland-management strategies appropriate to deal with the
erratic rainfall in African drylands. Herd mobility was
traditionally practiced as the key strategy to make use of
the scattered rangeland resources on a large scale.
Rapid population growth in many
developing countries has raised concerns regarding food
security and household welfare. To understand the
consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium
setting, this paper examines the dynamics of population
density and its impacts on household outcomes. The analysis
uses panel data from Indonesia combined with district-level
demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to
land constraints through a mix of agricultural
intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and nonfarm
diversification, with public policies playing a role in
catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary
Indonesia, the paper finds that human capital determines the
effect of increased population density on per capita
household consumption expenditure. On the one hand, the
effect of population density is positive if the average
educational attainment is high (above junior high school),
while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers
with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming
regardless of population density. The paper concludes with
some potential lessons for African countries from
Indonesia's more successful rural development experiences.
This report has the following
objectives: (i) identify the underlying constraints to
strong and sustained growth, in particular, the dynamic
circles that lock Niger in a low-growth/high poverty
equilibrium; (ii) understand the key determinants of growth
and poverty traps and the role increased foreign aid could
play to promote growth and help achieve the
MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs); and (iii) help
the Government of Niger design a strategy to accelerating
growth and human development: Strategy Paper for Human
Development (SPAHD). This report is organized as follows:
Chapter 1 describes the main features of Niger's
economy from a Social Accounting Matrix perspective. It aims
to analyze the potential linkages between sectors and the
impact a policy shock of an increased public investment
could have on Niger's economy. Chapter 2 reviews
Niger's growth performance over the past three decades.
It draws some policy lessons critical to the design of a
growth strategy for Niger. Chapter 3 provides a snapshot of
where Niger stands in achieving the MDGs with less than a
decade remaining. It examines the reasons why Niger is
falling short of the goals...
This volume helps fill the gap left from
insufficiently archived details of family planning programs
carried out in many developing countries from the 1950s
through the 1980s of their operations, their commonalities,
and their differences, with much useful information and
informed analysis. The programs were complex undertakings in
difficult settings that had little prior experience to draw
upon. Not surprisingly, as the case studies described here
demonstrate, no single strategy was available that could be
employed across these diverse situations, and procedures
that were successful in one country did not necessarily
function well in another. The case studies also indicate
that developing a successful program was as much an art as a
science. The key ingredient was being able to distinguish
when a somewhat radical new approach was needed and when
only some fine-tuning was necessary. While not a focus of
this book, the family planning programs had several
important, indirect effects on the field of population
studies that merit attention as part of the record. First...
Population estimates are rarely constructed for ecological regions. The recent establishment of a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) generates a need for such estimates. This paper obliges by presenting Indigenous and total population projections for the Australian desert to 2016. The desert is found to be a region of relatively low population growth in national terms, contrary to the experience of many other parts of non-metropolitan Australia where population decline is prevalent. Also noted is the markedly different growth observed for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous components of the desert population, with the former projected to increase much more rapidly over time. It is likely that virtually all of the increase in the desert population over the next 15 years will arise from natural increase among Indigenous peoples. As a consequence, the Indigenous share of the regional population is projected to rise from 20 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent by 2016, with attendant consequences for social and economic policy.
Bolivia’s distinct characteristics and
aspirations are a key for understanding its development
trajectory. Bolivia is one of the countries with the highest
share of indigenous population, representing a tapestry of
different groups with different historical, cultural and
economic features, with a significant influence in policy
decision making. The country is landlocked and one of the
most sparsely populated in the world. As a result, long
distances to the nearest seaports and markets and a
challenging topography pose important natural constraints to
economic expansion, and hamper broad-based and inclusive
growth. Bolivia is also wealthy in natural resources, not
only in hydrocarbon and in mining but in forestry and arable
land, with high potential for growth, which make it
vulnerable to commodity price shocks. In addition, in the
last decade, the country has experienced a profound economic
and political paradigm shift, enshrined in the 2009
Constitution, which has been predominantly driven by a
state-led development model geared at addressing the social
aspirations of Bolivians. The Agenda Patriótica provides the
overall policy vision to 2025 and includes 13 strategic
pillars. The PDES contains a five-year rolling plan with
policy actions and budgets to operationalize the Agenda
Patriótica. The overarching development agenda of the
Government is still...
Este trabalho analisa a fecundidade dos Kamaiurá, povo Tupi habitante do Parque Indígena do Xingu (PIX), entre 1970 e 2003. As fontes de dados foram os registros do Programa de Saúde da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (Unifesp) no Parque Indígena do Xingu e levantamentos de campo realizados em 2003. O estudo mostrou que até 1966 a população Kamaiurá manteve-se estável devido à alta mortalidade por epidemias de doenças infecciosas e disputas com os povos da região, assim como à fecundidade moderada. Entre 1967 e 2002, essa população cresceu 3,5% ao ano. O nível da fecundidade das Kamaiurá passou de 5,7 para 6,2 filhos por mulher, entre 1970 e 2003, tendo atingido seu valor máximo em 1980 (6,6). A partir da década de 1990, houve um envelhecimento do padrão reprodutivo, evidenciado pela redução dos níveis de fecundidade das mulheres com até 24 anos e aumento entre as mulheres dos demais grupos etários. A média de idade ao nascimento do primeiro filho aumentou de 16,2 para 18,8 anos, no período 1970-2003, e a proporção de mulheres solteiras maiores de 15 anos de idade também cresceu: de 6,3%, em 1971, para 26%, em 2003. Nesse período, o intervalo entre os nascimentos variou entre 30,3 e 36 meses. O aumento da fecundidade dos Kamaiurá foi favorecido pela melhoria das condições de saúde decorrente da queda da mortalidade...