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Improving the Goodness-of-Fits Associated with the Current and Proposed Combat Active Replacement Factors (CARF) Methodology

Solano, Mario L.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
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The U.S. Marine Corps developed the Combat Active Replacement Factor (CARF) methodology as a way to obtain reliable logistics planning factors to aid in the estimation of equipment losses in future conflicts. The continuous evaluation and validation of these types of methodologies is considered of critical importance, since its effects directly impact combat effectiveness, supply chain management, logistics, acquisitions, and overall budgeting. This thesis analyzes a proposed methodology for use in calculating Explicitly Calculated CARFs (ECCs), making use of real-world Master Data Repository (MDR) data from previous low- and medium-intensity conflicts. As well, this thesis analyzes proposed regression models used in calculating Federal Supply Code (FSC) and Federal Supply Group (FSG) CARFs. We employ bootstrapping techniques in order to analyze the sensitivity of ECCs and find that as many of 70% may exhibit extreme sensitivity to reasonable changes in usage data. We employ Ordinary Least Squares regression models to estimate CARFs by FSC and FSG and obtain dramatically more CARFs relative to the draft methodology. Finally, a cross validation of a sample of the regression models reveals that CARFs generated from such models tend to vary substantially from their actual values.

Transforming the force : a comparative analysis of the Department of Defense's (DoD'S) Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems

Hill, Charles W.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: xiv, 115 p. : ill. ;
Português
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Automated Information Systems (AIS) are Software systems that support administrative functions, such as accounting, payroll, finance, personnel, inventory control, logistics, and equipment and maintenance scheduling. An ERP system is a type of AIS that works to integrate all the different functional business areas of an organization. Since the 1990s, a large number of corporations have transitioned from legacy proprietary software to an ERP. The companies who have successfully made the transition have greatly benefited from the flow of information across the organization that is brought about by the ERP's ability to integrate the multi-dimensional data into a single common database. The current AIS environment of the DOD is marked by a lack of systems integration. Like industry, the DOD is looking to combat this environment with ERP systems. This thesis intends to document the history of the ERP implementations in the DOD. In addition, this thesis will highlight the different approaches each service is taking to complete their transitions. The thesis will also compare the plans of the services to the plans that successful corporations executed in their transitions to an ERP. By comparing the plans of the services to industry's guidelines on how to correctly implement an ERP...

An examination of the USMC Combat Active Replacement Factor (CARF) determination system

Lindsay, Glenn F.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
42.40819%
Combat Active Replacement Factors, or CARFs, are logistics planning factors currently used by the U.S. Marine Corps as estimates of equipment losses in future conflicts. Adapted Army replacement factors are currently a prime source for CARF values, but verification of these values is difficult. This report examines two alternate means of estimating CARF values for comparative purposes. The first employs mean-time-to-loss estimates for various equipment types, and several scenario-oriented models are given for mapping these values into CARFs. Professional military judgement provides another way of estimating CARF values, and a procedure is given by which the judgment of many experts can be aggregated to provide CARF information. A demonstraction of the procedure is given, employing actual data from twenty-three judges who rated 'chance of loss' for twenty-one equipment types. Keywords: Replacement factor, combat losses, scaling; Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; http://archive.org/details/examinationofusm00lind; NA