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Limites da arbitragem no mercado de capitais : abordagem das finanças comportamentais; Limits to arbitrage in the capital market : behavioral finance approach

Vitor Kamada
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 12/08/2010 Português
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96.03%
Esta dissertação trata dos limites à arbitragem no mercado de capitais. A idéia básica subjacente ao processo de arbitragem é comprar ativos financeiros desvalorizados e vender ativos financeiros supervalorizados. A finalidade é obter ganhos pecuniários mediante o diferencial dos preços. A economia neoclássica supõe que a arbitragem é processo instantâneo sem custos e riscos realizado por agentes atomísticos. No presente trabalho, essa hipótese é contestada com base nos avanços teóricos das Finanças Comportamentais. Na realidade, a arbitragem é sofisticada estratégia de investimento planejada por poucos profissionais altamente especializados em determinados mercados. Não obstante a arbitragem envolver substanciais custos e riscos, não há garantias de sucesso. A análise de casos concretos sugere que a concepção de arbitragem proposta pelas Finanças Comportamentais é mais realista. Três casos paradigmáticos foram analisados neste trabalho, a saber: I) empresas controladoras que valiam menos do que suas subsidiárias, como o exemplo da 3Com/Palm; II) ações gêmeas cujos preços desviavam-se da paridade teórica, como o exemplo da Royal Dutch/Shell; e III) o colapso do hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). No primeiro caso...

The Long and the Short of Emerging Market Debt

Opazo, Luis; Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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66.13%
Emerging economies have tried to promote long-term debt because it reduces maturity mismatches and the probability of crises. This paper uses unique evidence from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent there is domestic demand for long-term instruments. The authors analyze monthly asset-level portfolios of Chilean institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies) and compare their maturity structure to that of US bond mutual funds. Despite being thought to invest long term, Chilean asset-management institutions (mutual and pension funds) hold large amounts of short-term assets relative to US mutual funds and Chilean insurance companies. Short-termism is not driven by lack of instrument availability or tactical behavior. Instead, it seems to be explained by the desire to minimize inflation risk and, more importantly, by manager incentives that tilt demand toward short-term instruments. Extending the maturity of emerging market debt may require reducing risk and reshaping investor incentives.

Long-Term Care Policies for Older Populations in New EU Member States and Croatia : Challenges and Opportunities

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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65.78%
The objective of this summary report is to highlight the main lessons learned from Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation (OECD) countries with advanced Long Term Care (LTC) policies and the implications for LTC policymaking in new European Union (EU) member states and Croatia. The first section examines the main findings from the framework report on the financing, provision and regulation of LTC services. The next section presents comparative findings from the four case study countries, including the demographic context for LTC services, the main features of the financing, provision and regulation of LTC services and the strengths and weaknesses of current LTC systems there. The last section identifies policy directions for the four case study countries. In terms of LTC benefits, none of the case study countries have a universal entitlement system combining home, community and institutional care. Rather, LTC benefits, both cash and in-kind, are limited and largely associated with the social assistance system. The lack of data on LTC expenditures mainly stems from the undefined position of LTC between the health and social sectors...

Pakistan : Issues Related to the Government Securities Market and Government Debt Management

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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65.91%
The government of Pakistan borrows in the domestic market through a range of instruments, and this market is a critical source of funding for both shorter-term cash management and longer-term deficit-financing. The government has taken actions over the past 18 months that have enhanced the effectiveness of the market as a source of funding, as well as its efficiency. These include the movement toward more predictable, volume-based, market-determined pricing of government securities. Taking account of the dynamics of demand will be important as the government continues to develop its medium-term debt management strategy. Doing so will help identify potential constraints that may impede the implementation of the chosen strategy. Specific actions that the government is recommended to take include: a) reducing the number of tenors issued, b) consolidating the debt stock so as to improve liquidity in individual bonds, c) reducing time delays in auction processing, and d) developing and investor-relations function...

European Bank Deleveraging and Global Credit Conditions : Implications of a Multi-Year Process on Long-Term Finance and Beyond

Feyen, Erik; González del Mazo, Inés
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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56.02%
This paper assesses European bank deleveraging and its impact on global credit conditions. Before the onset of the global financial crisis, European banks had rapidly expanded their foreign lending activities. However, European banks have since been tightening credit conditions in Europe more for longer-term lending, a trend that banks expect to continue. European financial stress has been transmitted to emerging markets that have experienced a sustained deterioration of credit standards and funding conditions. As a result, European lending in emerging markets has been lagging behind lending of other international banks although European banks remain a dominant source of funding. "Good" bank deleveraging is still necessary from a prudential perspective. Although acute "bad" deleveraging pressures due to financial stress, which can trigger a credit crunch, have subsided recently on account of decisive policy measures, tail risks remain. Curtailing lending will probably be a core component of this multi-year deleveraging process. Taken together...

Financial Sector Assessment Program - Lebanon : Capital Market Development Technical Note

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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56.01%
Lebanese capital market is relatively small as the financial market is dominated by the banking sector. It is apparent that banks dominate financial intermediation in Lebanon to the extent it may inhibit the development of capital markets. Government sees the need to develop capital markets to help finance corporate growth and infrastructure development. It is incumbent on the Government to establish a comprehensive capital market development program, which includes efforts to increase supply and demand, strengthen supervision and enforcement, and must be accompanied by an effective outreach campaign, both domestically and internationally. On the demand side, creating a steady flow of investment into instruments with a long-term horizon, primarily from the pension and insurance sectors, will help grow the markets. Increased demand from institutional investors and issuance by large companies will attract more companies to the capital markets. All these efforts need to be complemented by the issuance of effective regulations...

Shaping the Future : A Long-Term Perspective of People and Job Mobility in the Middle East and North Africa

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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65.73%
The objective of this study is to provide a long-term perspective for the ongoing policy dialogue on the management of labor migration in Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It is organized as follows. Chapter one puts the report and migration in the context of the economic and social development in MENA countries. Chapter two provides the historical context of MENA migration patterns and an overview of the presence and skill characteristics of migrants in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries today. This chapter also discusses the potential for insourcing, that is, migration of jobs into the region as an alternative or complement to labor migration. Chapter three analyzes the demand and supply framework for migration, the determinants of migration patterns, and the potential demand for labor in the European Union (EU), and the characteristics and trends of MENA labor supply. Chapter four looks to the worldwide impact of demographic and labor force developments in the decades ahead and their implications on labor and job mobility. The chapter analyzes the likely population and labor force growth in Europe and MENA...

Proving Incentives for Long-Term Investment by Pension Funds : The Use of Outcome-based Benchmarks

Stewart, Fiona
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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66.05%
A fundamental goal of any pension system is to ensure that members receive an adequate income when they retire. Although traditional defined benefit pension plans set out how pension income will be determined in advance and then strive to deliver this, the growing number of defined contribution plans accumulate a sum of assets which can then be turned into a pension income on retirement. However, the amount of this retirement income is not predefined This frequently leads to a focus by not only most pension providers, but also regulators and pension plan members themselves on the short-term accumulation of pension assets rather than the longer-term goal of securing an adequate retirement income. This paper discusses a possible solution to this challenge: the use of benchmarks to encourage pension funds to invest with the longer-term goal of delivering adequate retirement income in mind. Examples are provided of leading pension funds that already work with long-term, outcome-based benchmarks. The paper suggests a methodology for pension regulators to use in order to incentivize pension funds in their jurisdictions to adopt a similar approach.

Creating a Framework for Public-Private Partnership Programs; A Practical Guide for Decision-makers

Delmon, Jeffrey
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.05%
Public private partnerships (PPP) represent an approach to procuring infrastructure services that is radically different from traditional public procurement. It moves beyond the client-supplier relationship when government hires private companies to supply assets or a service. PPP is a partnership between public and private to achieve a solution, to deliver an infrastructure service over the long term. It combines the strength of the public sector’s mandate to deliver services and its role as regulator and coordinator of public functions with the private sector’s focus on profitability and therefore commercial efficiency. There is a tendency to approach reform of the PPP framework as a single action, generally delivered by external consultants in one massive report, with a few workshops and training sessions (in an effort to deliver the guidance in a more digestible form). Achieving a viable PPP framework involves a complex series of parallel, iterative initiatives, and efforts. It involves updating the different elements of the PPP framework discussed in this text as each new lesson is learned from PPP transactions as they are implemented and national best practice as it develops. Section one introduces the framework required to support PPP and provides a summary of the text. Sections two to six describes five key elements of the PPP framework and what the government can do to improve them.

Mexico : Capital Market Development

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
Securities markets in Mexico are orderly and relatively innovative; however, corporate markets lag behind those in comparator countries. The government bond market accounts for the bulk of the fixed-income segment, and is well developed and active. While financial savings rates have been growing, little has been transformed into long-term investments. Most of the savings remain in traditional savings accounts. Institutional investors still hold the bulk of their assets in government bonds. Mexico will need to find solutions to further develop its capital market to fund its development needs. In the infrastructure sector alone, the country needs approximately US$230 billion of new investments. In the corporate sector, provision of financing by banks fare well below peers, especially for small and medium enterprises. Meanwhile, the pension fund industry, growing at about US$20-US$30 billion annually, requires sound investment outlets. The large concentration in the control of financial intermediaries raises complex issues and may stunt market development. The investor base in the equity market lacks diversity...

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
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56.09%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Mining Industry as a Source of Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan

Bogdetsky, Valentine; Ibraev, Karybek; Abdyrakhmanova, Jyldyz
Fonte: World Bank, Bishkek Publicador: World Bank, Bishkek
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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65.93%
The study 'Mining as a source of economic growth in Kyrgyzstan' is developed by the project implementation unit of the World Bank for 'building capacity in governance and revenues streams management for mining and natural resources'. This study is aimed at defining a role for the mining industry in the country and evaluating its possible impacts on economic development in the future. Mineral resources development is an essential condition for successful economic development of Kyrgyz Republic. In fact, it is the only possible way to raise social welfare in remote high mountainous regions. At the present time, some recovery of investment activities in mining industry has been observed. However, the lack of long-term capital investments in mining and geological exploration projects is still acutely felt. International experts have noted more than once that in spite of the significant size of territory and good level of geological study, the minerals potential of the country remains underdeveloped. At present...

Instruments to Tap Capital Markets for Funding in Housing and Related Considerations Concerning the Sistema Brasileiro de Poupança e Empréstimo

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
At the request of the Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) at the Brazilian Ministry of Finance (Fazenda), the World Bank carried out a second phase of the Non-Lending Technical Assistance (NLTA) aimed at supporting the Government's ongoing housing sector reform efforts. Work provided under Phase II of the NLTA focused on two interrelated issues : Proposing the introduction of new instruments which will allow lenders to raise long-term funds from the capital markets; and Identifying options to ensure a better alignment of the Sistema Financeiro de Habitação (SFH), with its two pillars SBPE and FGTS, with the introduction of new capital market instruments.

Analysis and Options for Namibia's Medium-Term Debt Strategy

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Poverty Study; Economic & Sector Work
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy...

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance : Risks and Opportunities

Gelb, Alan; Tordo, Silvana; Halland, Havard; Arfaa, Noora; Smith, Gregory
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilization. Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically. This paper proposes some basic elements of a conceptual framework to create a system of checks and balances to help ensure that the sovereign wealth funds do not undermine macroeconomic management or become a vehicle for politically driven "investments." First, the risks and opportunities of domestic investment by sovereign wealth funds are analyzed. Central issues are the relationship of sovereign wealth fund financing to the budget process and to the procurement systems of sector ministries...

South Asian Bond Markets : Developing Long-Term Finance for Growth

Sophastienphong, Kiatchai; Mu, Yibin; Saporito, Carlotta
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.06%
Bond markets play an essential part in economies. As part of a diversified financial system, a well-developed domestic bond market can help provide the long-term financing needed for sustainable growth. It can also produce broad-ranging benefits throughout the economy. In South Asia the development of domestic debt securities markets lags. The markets remain small compared both with the size of the region's economies and with markets in East Asia. Even in India the market is still small relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), suggesting that long-term debt financing remains at an early stage in the region. Equity markets and banks still dominate South Asian financial systems. Measures are needed to enhance both the depth and the breadth of South Asian bond markets, to bring them into line with those in East Asia and, in the long run, with those in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This study assesses domestic debt securities markets in South Asia, identifies constraints to their development...

Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia

Bogetic, Zeljko; Smits, Karlis; Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.11%
Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment...

Crisis Preparedness and Debt Management in Low Income Countries : Strengthening Institutions and Policy Frameworks

Weist, Dana; Togo, Eriko; Prasad, Abha; O'Boyle, William
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.01%
The magnitude of the public liabilities incurred as a result of the unprecedented government action in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the consequences of exiting from the projected high debt scenario, have become a major source of concern about a future sovereign debt crisis. As Low-Income Countries (LICs) face unique challenges in debt management (DeM) due to their more limited financing sources and higher capacity constraints, their ability to successfully manage their public debt burdens effectively through a crisis of this magnitude is far from assured. Therefore, the challenges of the last two years will require a re-evaluation of existing DeM strategies in LICs, focusing on the identification of institutional weaknesses and the assessment and mitigation of potential risk. It is in this context that this paper examines the application of two global public goods in LICs: the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) and the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) tools. The results of the application of these tools from 2007-2009 provide valuable information to policymakers and other stakeholders on the development of sound public DeM practices and analytical capacity...

Assessment of the Financing Framework for Municipal Infrastructure in Vietnam; Danh gia khung tai tro cho co so ha tang dia phuong o Viet Nam bao cao cuoi cung

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Infrastructure Framework
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
A fundamental challenge for Vietnam is to improve the affordability and efficiency of infrastructure investment. The fragmentation of public infrastructure investment results in duplication and waste, and is a major underlying cause of investment inefficiency. Bond issuance has been the most prominent form of debt financing at the sub-national level. At the provincial level, significant disconnects exist between total planned investment needs in infrastructure, and the effective demand for such investment. The success of any initiative to improve the financing of municipal infrastructure in Vietnam hinges on advances in the broader landscape of policy reform as part of the country's long-term development. Meeting these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that addresses issues of governance, financing, and execution. This report has been formulated with the objective of informing the Government of Vietnam (GOV) on how the financing framework for municipal infrastructure in the country can be strengthened. It is based on an assessment of the constraints and opportunities that sub-national governments face in accessing financing for infrastructure development. It also draws upon lessons and good practices from international experience in this area...

Relação trimestral de longo prazo entre os indicadores de liquidez e de rentabilidade: evidência de empresas do setor têxtil; Relación trimestral de largo plazo entre los indicadores de liquidez y de rentabilidad: evidencia de empresas del sector textil; Quarterly long-term relation between liquidity and profitability indicators: evidence from textile companies

Pimentel, Renê Coppe; Lima, Iran Siqueira
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Artigo Avaliado pelos Pares Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/09/2011 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
Neste artigo, analisa-se a relação temporal de longo prazo entre os indicadores de liquidez e rentabilidade para um grupo de empresas abertas do setor têxtil brasileiro, com dados trimestrais entre março de 1995 e março de 2009. As hipóteses do trabalho são de que existe relação temporal positiva entre os indicadores de liquidez e rentabilidade nos médio e longo prazos, ou seja, uma baixa liquidez pode deteriorar uma alta rentabilidade, ou vice-versa, e é possível verificar uma tendência geral para causalidade de Granger entre os indicadores. Os resultados sugerem que existe relação temporal positiva e mostram que as empresas apresentam causalidades de Granger em sentidos diferentes (tanto no sentido rentabilidade-liquidez como no sentido liquidez-rentabilidade). Assim, apesar do inter-relacionamento de longo prazo, não foi possível estabelecer uma relação única sobre a direção da causalidade.; En este artículo se analiza la relación temporal de largo plazo entre los indicadores de liquidez y rentabilidad para un grupo de empresas del sector textil brasileño, con datos trimestrales entre marzo 1995 y marzo 2009. Las hipótesis de este estudio son: 1) existe una relación temporal positiva entre los indicadores de liquidez y rentabilidad en el mediano y en el largo plazos...