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Ill-gotten Money and the Economy : Experiences from Malawi and Namibia

Yikona, Stuart; Slot, Brigie; Geller, Michael; Hansen, Bjarne; Kadiri, Fatima el
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
Over the last 20 years, the international community has significantly stepped up its efforts to prevent, detect, and deter money flows related to criminal activities and terrorism financing. Since the early 2000s, this drive has extended to developing countries, with most of them introducing anti-money laundering (AML) policies. The primary driver behind this is law enforcement; these policies are aimed at detecting and tracing flows of ill-gotten money, which would enable authorities to fight and prevent crime and recover assets of crime, corruption, and tax evasion. The core objective of this study is to introduce economics into the international debate about anti-money laundering, and to introduce the idea of the usefulness and effectiveness of such policies. The study focuses on two developing countries: Malawi, a low-income country, and Namibia, a middle-income country. The findings presented in this study are based on an extensive literature research; World Bank discussions with numerous public- and private-sector officials and representatives of the Governments of Malawi and Namibia during a Bank mission in November 2010; and workshops conducted in both countries in February 2011 to obtain feedback on the preliminary findings. In conducting this study...

An Attempt to Measure the Trends in Shadow Employment in Poland : The Transition Probabilities out and into Shadow Employment Using the LFS Data Augmented by the Results of a Dedicated Survey Performed by CASE in 2007

Walewski, Mateusz
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
This paper presents the results of an attempt to use the combined results of the dedicated survey performed by CASE in 2007 and Polish LFS data in order to: (a) analyze the development of the shadow employment in Poland in years 2003-2008 and, (b) analyze the transition probabilities in and out of shadow employment. The estimated share of shadow workers in total employment in Poland in years 2003-2008 was increasing until 2006 and then started to decrease in the years 2007 and 2008. Other results are in line with one of the main conclusions of the CASE study from 2007 suggesting that shadow employment is more a way of coping with lack of other employment opportunities than an equivalent or even superior alternative to any legal employment contracts. On the other hand those who enter shadow employment are more active part of the group having problems with finding full time/open term employment. They are much more inclined to cope with their situation by entering some form of self-employment than to stay passive and depend on social assistance.

Labor Institutions and Their Impact on Shadow Economies in Europe

Fialova, Kamila; Schneider, Ondrej
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.8%
This paper analyzes the role of labor market institutions in explaining the development of shadow economies in European countries. The analysis uses several alternative measures of the shadow sector, and examines the effects of labor institutions on the shadow sector in two specific regions: new and old European Union member countries, as their respective shadow sectors exhibited a different development in the past decade. Although the share of the shadow economy in gross domestic product averaged 27.5 percent in the new member countries in 1999-2007, the respective share in the old member states stood at 17.9 percent. The paper estimates the effects of labor market institutions on two sets of shadow economy indicators -- shadow production and shadow employment. Comparing alternative measures of the shadow sector allows a more granulated analysis of labor market institution effects. The results indicate that the one institution that unambiguously increases shadow economy production and employment is the strictness of employment protection legislation. Other labor market institutions -- active and passive labor market policies...

Shadow Economies All over the World : New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007

Schneider, Friedrich; Buehn, Andreas; Montenegro, Claudio E.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.68%
This paper presents estimations of the shadow economies for 162 countries, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high-income countries over the period 1999 to 2006/2007. According to the estimations, the weighted average size of the shadow economy (as a percentage of "official" gross domestic product) in Sub-Saharan Africa is 38.4 percent; in Europe and Central Asia (mostly transition countries), it is 36.5 percent, and in high-income OECD countries, it is 13.5 percent. The authors find a clear negative trend in the size of the shadow economy: The unweighted average of the 162 countries in 1999 was 34.0 percent and in 2007 31.0 percent; hence a reduction of 3 percentage points!.The driving forces of the shadow economy are an increased burden of taxation (both direct and indirect), combined with labor market regulations and the quality of public goods and services, as well as the state of the "official" economy.

Sovereign Ratings in the Post-Crisis World : An Analysis of Actual, Shadow and Relative Risk Ratings

Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan...

Chasing the Shadows : How Significant is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?

Ghosh, Swati; Gonzalez del Mazo, Ines; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
Broadly defined as credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system, shadow banking raises important policy concerns. Given significant challenges with data availability, the size, nature and significance of shadow banking in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are even less discussed and understood. Shadow banking in EMDEs generally does not involve long, complex, opaque chains of intermediation, as is often the case in advanced economies. Nonetheless, it can pose systemic risks, both directly, as its importance in the total financial system grows (with the concomitant credit, market, and liquidity risks that its participants undertake), and indirectly through its interconnectedness with the regulated banking system. At the same time, shadow banks also play an important role in channeling alternative funding sources to EMDEs, especially as deleveraging pressures from European banks continue. This suggests that policy makers need to manage trade-offs carefully to ensure that shadow banks provide alternative but safe sources of funding to the private sector without generating additional systemic risks. Based on a snapshot of selected EMDEs in East Asia and in Central and Eastern Europe...

Informal Firms and Financial Inclusion : Status and Determinants

Farazi, Subika
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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36.41%
Many firms in the developing world -- including a majority of micro, small, and medium enterprises -- operate in the informal economy. The informal firms face a variety of constraints, making it harder for them to do business and grow. Lack of access to finance is often cited as the biggest operational constraint these firms face. This paper documents the use of finance and financing patterns of informal firms, highlights differences between use of finance by formal and informal firms, and identifies the most significant characteristics of informal firms that are associated with higher use of financial services. The analysis shows that use of loans and bank accounts for business by informal firms is very low and a vast majority finances their day-to-day operations and investments through sources other than financial institutions (internal funds, moneylenders, family, and friends). A majority of informal firm owners would like their firms to become formal but do not do so as it would require them to pay taxes. Registered firms are 54 percent more likely to have a bank account and 32 percent more likely to have loans. Results also show that firm size...

A Correction to: "The Structure of General Equilibrium Shadow Pricing Rules for a Tax-Distorted Economy"

Jones, Chris
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 199771 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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36.46%
This paper makes a correction to the way the marginal social cost of public funds (MCF) is used in Sieper (1981) to obtain uncompensated shadow prices when transfers are made with distorting taxes. We derive a shadow value of government revenue to measure the change in utility from endowing an extra dollar of revenue on the government who transfers it to consumers. This, rather than the “conventional” Harberger” measure of the MCF, converts the compensated shadow price of any good into its uncompensated shadow price. We use it to prove that Ramsey optimal taxes, which minimize the compensated tax inefficiency for a given revenue requirement, have equal uncompensated marginal excess burdens per dollar change in government revenue.; no

Tax morale in Latin America

Torgler, Benno
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Conference paper Formato: 117930 bytes; 367 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
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46.33%
In the tax compliance literature, we observe a lack of empirical evidence on the degree of tax morale in developing countries. Thus, our paper as a novelty focuses on Latin America, analysing tax morale as dependent variable and searching for factors that systematically affect tax morale, working with the two data sets Latinobarómetro and World Values Survey. Our findings indicate that there is a significant correlation between tax morale and the size of shadow economy. Furthermore, people who said they knew/have heard about practised tax avoidance have a significant lower tax morale than others. Looking at individuals perception of reasons for tax evasion we found that the tax burden, lacking honesty, and corruption are seen as the main factors. We observed a significantly lower tax morale in South America/Mexico than in the Central America/Caribbean area. Furthermore, trust in the president and the officials, the belief that other individuals obey the law and a pro democratic attitude have a significant positive effect on tax morale.; no

The value added of underground activities: size and measurement of the shadow economies of 110 countries all over the world

Schneider, Friedrich
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 401965 bytes; 363 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
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56.68%
Using various methods estimates about the size of the shadow economy in 110 developing, transition and OECD countries are presented. The average size of the shadow economy (in percent of official GDP) over 1999-2000 in developing countries is 41%, in transition countries 38% and in OECD countries 18.0%. An increasing burden of taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulatory activities are the driving forces for the growth and size of the shadow economy (labor force).

Gaining control of Iraq's shadow economy

Ramirez, David S.
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: xiv, 85 p. : ill. ;
Português
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Four and a half years after freeing Iraqi citizens from a ruthless dictatorship, the country is still mired in poverty, corruption and insurgent violence. These conditions fuel a sprawling, decades-old shadow economy manipulated by elements of organized crime, militias, and insurgents to fund attacks on Coalition forces, infrastructure and innocent Iraqi civilians. The shadow economy is also used extensively by the poor and women for subsistence living. The combined effect for Iraqi citizens is they have to survive in a country without adequate institutions and poor governance. The extensive shadow economy diverts funds from legitimate uses by the government such as taxes, funds for reconstruction projects, social protection, social insurance, etc. Numerous agencies are deeply committed to helping the Iraqi government rebuild and formalize the shadow economy. In this thesis I examine the challenges involved in formalizing a shadow economy in the midst of war and the strategies undertaken. I analyze similar efforts to restore peace and stability in Afghanistan with its burgeoning opium trade searching for successful approaches with applicability in Iraq.; US Navy (USN) author.

The Economics of Coping: the Plight of Women in Iraq's Information Economy

Looney, Robert
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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46.34%
The author analyzes the role of women in the Iraqi economy, especially the informal sector, in recent times and considers the effect that changes to their role in the economy have had and will have. The paper argues that Iraqi women working in the informal sector face a difficult future the nature of which will depend largely on their educational background, Ba'athist ties during the former regime, the strength of various religious groups opposed to women pursuing activities outside the household, and the areas in which women attempt to pursue a career.

Local Economic Governance in Hard Times: The shadow economy and the textile and clothing industries around Lódz and Naples

BURRONI, Luigi; CROUCH, Colin; KAMINSKA, Monika Ewa; VALZANIA, Andrea
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Português
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46.64%
This papers derives from the project 'Citizens and Governance in the Knowledge-based Society', forming part of the New Modes of Governance (NewGov) Integrated Project under the European Commission’s Framework Six Programme, co-ordinated by the European University Institute, Florence, and its Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. In 2005 ca. 70 face-to-face interviews were conducted with local entrepreneurs; representatives of local authorities; representatives of the Municipality of the two case studies; representatives of regional authorities; researchers from the University; experts from regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The interviews were semistructured, with an interview guide based on an inventory of issues. However, the discursive nature of interviews was preserved, which allowed the interviewees to raise additional issues. Secondary sources were also extensively used in the research, using local newspaper, documents, research reports, as well as documents from local public and private institutions, such as the local government or employers associations, and a secondary analysis of quantitative data was carried out.; Areas of industrial decline, with poor quality local government and poor infrastructure, frequently find a kind of economic success through the shadow economy. But illegality imposes constraints on the kind of success that can be achieved. The study of such areas in central Poland and southern Italy reveals considerable similarities...

Individual behaviour in Australia's shadow economy: facts, empirical findings and some mysteries

Schneider, Friedrich; Braithwaite, Valerie; Reinhart, Monika
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 139432 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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66.92%
This paper attempts to explain the behaviour that motivates individuals to engage in the shadow economy. Results show that those who fear being caught by tax authorities are less likely to supply or purchase work in the shadow economy. Further, those who earn more money in the ‘official’ economy, work less in the shadow economy, but purchase more shadow economy work. The results of logistic regressions show that when working in the shadow economy is seen as socially acceptable, shadow economy activities are higher.

Additional findings showed that, on average, a shadow economy worker earned AUS$2135.31 during 2000, and households spent AUS$2293.00 for these services. Using micro-data to calculate an overall aggregate figure for the estimated size of the shadow economy in Australia during 2000, it was found that between 4.81% and 8.8% of the gross national income (GNI) was earned in the shadow economy.; no

New Estimates for the Shadow Economies All over the World; International Economic Journal

Schneider, Friedrich; Buehn, Andreas; Montenegro, Claudio E.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Journal Article; Journal Article
Português
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56.74%
This paper presents estimations of the shadow economies for 162 countries, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high income OECD countries over 1999 to 2006/2007. According to our estimations, the weighted average size of the shadow economy (as a percentage of 'official' GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa is 37.6%, in Europe and Central Asia (mostly transition countries) 36.4% and in high income OECD countries 13.4%. We find that an increased burden of taxation (direct and indirect ones), combined with (labour market) regulations and the quality of public goods and services as well as the state of the 'official' economy are the driving forces of the shadow economy.

Transition to a Low Carbon Economy in Poland

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
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36.34%
Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland is a study by the World Bank for the Polish Government, supported by the UK Department for International Development and donors to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The study poses the question of how Poland, an European Union (EU) member state, an industrialized 'annex one' country for the purposes of international climate discussions, and an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member, can successfully transition to a low carbon economy as successfully as it underwent transition to a market economy in the early 1990s. Transition to a low carbon economy in Poland provides a detailed assessment of many aspects of a low carbon growth strategy for Poland, developing insights via a suite of models that should provide ongoing assistance to policymakers. These policymakers may find reassuring the main message that Poland's transition to a low carbon economy, while not free or simple is affordable. However, capturing the full package of technologically feasible and economically sensible abatement measures requires coordinated and early action by the government.

In From the Shadow : Integrating Europe's Informal Labor

Koettl, Johannes; Packard, Truman; Montenegro, Claudio E.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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46.51%
This book is about Magda and Jacek and millions of others like them, who earn a living working full- or part-time in Europe's untaxed markets for goods, services, and labor. Magda was certified as a hairdresser years ago, and she's very proud of the salon apprenticeship she did shortly after. She learned a lot and made good friends but was never fully comfortable working for somebody else. Jacek's clients pay him in cash, and he pays his men in cash as well. He sometimes needs to show a license to get the trade price on parts and materials. But he can keep it up-to-date by declaring only part of what he actually earns to the tax office. This book ventures a general conclusion about what policy makers can do to bring more economic activity in from the shadow: Although it may be necessary to improve the structural incentives created by taxation, social protection policies, and labor market regulation, doing so is not sufficient for substantive improvement to be achieved. To back up this general conclusion...

Growth Diagnostics for a Resource-Rich Transition Economy : The Case of Mongolia

Ianchovichina, Elena; Gooptu, Sudarshan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.49%
This paper uses a growth diagnostics approach à la Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) to identify the most 'binding' constraints to private sector growth in Mongolia - a small, low-income, mineral-rich, transition economy. The approach of applying the HRV methodology is useful in those cases where a lack of data prevents us from estimating shadow prices to identify the most 'binding' constraint to growth. We find that although Mongolia is not liquidity constrained and has grown rapidly in recent years, economic growth has been narrowly based. Investment has flowed mainly into a small number of firms operating in mining and construction. The low level of private investment in sectors outside mining and construction has been due to low returns - a result of costly and unreliable transportation services; lengthy and complex transit procedures, including customs and trade rules; distortionary taxes; coordination failures, at both domestic and international levels; and growing corruption. Poor financial intermediation is also a problem that has kept the cost of finance high...

Intellectual property rights, foreign direct investment and the shadow economy

Canavire, Gustavo; Saravia, Antonio; Rios-Avila, Fernando
Fonte: Universidad EAFIT; Escuela de Econom??a y Finanzas Publicador: Universidad EAFIT; Escuela de Econom??a y Finanzas
Tipo: workingPaper; Documento de trabajo de investigaci??n; draf
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The relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to pose a challenging puzzle. While several studies have found that these two variables are positively correlated, others have not been able to find conclusive results or have found that the relationship is actually negative. We contend that a partial explanation of these contradictory results resides on institutional differences among host countries. We find that increases in IPR protection encourage FDI in countries in which the shadow (informal) economy represents a relatively small percentage of the country???s economy but it does not produce the same result in countries in which that percentage is relatively large. The size of the shadow economy is determined, in turn, by the quality of institutional variables such as the degree of bureaucracy, the level of corruption, and the extent of confiscatory taxation and political instability. We present empirical evidence supporting the results of our theoretical framework using threshold regression techniques on a sample of 94 countries and data for the 2000 - 2005 period.

The Devil is in the Shadow: Do Institutions Affect Income and Productivity or Only Official Income and Official Productivity

Dreher, Axel; Meon, Pierre-Guillaume; Schneider, Fredrich
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
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56.64%
This paper assesses the relationship between institutions, output, and productivity, when official output is corrected for the size of the shadow economy. Our results confirm the usual positive impact of institutional quality on official output and total factor productivity, and its negative impact on the size of the underground economy. However, once output is corrected for the shadow economy, the relationship between institutions and output becomes weaker. The impact of institutions on total (?corrected?) factor productivity even becomes insignificant. Differences in corrected output must then be attributed to differences in factor endowments. These results survive several tests for robustness.