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Análise de componentes principais na dinâmica da volatilidade implícita e sua correlação com o ativo objeto.; Principal component analysis over the implied volatility dynamic and its correlation with underlying.

Avelar, André Gnecco
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 03/07/2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Como a volatilidade é a única variável não observada nas fórmulas padrão de apreçamento de opções, o mercado financeiro utiliza amplamente o conceito de volatilidade implícita, isto é, a volatilidade que ao ser aplicada na fórmula de apreçamento resulte no preço correto (observado) das opções negociadas. Por isso, entender como as volatilidades implícitas das diversas opções de dólar negociadas na BM&F, o objeto de nosso estudo, variam ao longo do tempo e como estas se relacionam é importante para a análise de risco de carteiras de opções de dólar/real bem como para o apreçamento de derivativos cambiais exóticos ou pouco líquidos. A proposta de nosso estudo é, portanto, verificar se as observações da literatura técnica em diversos mercados também são válidas para as opções de dólar negociadas na BM&F: que as volatilidades implícitas não são constantes e que há uma relação entre as variações das volatilidades implícitas e as variações do valor do ativo objeto. Para alcançar este objetivo, aplicaremos a análise de componentes principais em nosso estudo. Com esta metodologia, reduziremos as variáveis aleatórias que representam o processo das volatilidades implícitas em um número menor de variáveis ortogonais...

Derivativos de volatilidade no mercado brasileiro de câmbio : viabilidade e impactos de sua utilização

Luterman, Rodolfo Nunes
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
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A volatilidade possui um papel central na gestão de risco tanto de portfólios de derivativos como de portfólios de ativos não alavancados. Este risco é gerenciado nos mercados financeiros através de diversos instrumentos, incluindo o uso de derivativos de volatilidade. No entanto, um mercado de derivativos de volatilidade no Brasil ainda é uma lacuna a ser preenchida, talvez pela baixa liquidez em determinadas opções ou mesmo pela falta de todos os ativos necessários para se estabelecer o portfólio replicante para os mesmos. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar um modelo simples de se apreçar swaps de volatilidade sob o BRL, estimulando um diálogo entre a comunidade acadêmica e os praticantes do mercado que permita o desenvolvimento de derivativos de volatilidade ao considerar o melhor de cada grupo. Para se apreçar este instrumento, a modelagem e os ativos utilizados são apresentados em detalhes como sendo os ingredientes básicos de um produto financeiro de sucesso. Os resultados numéricos demonstram que o modelo proposto pode ser considerado um poderoso instrumento para se realizar o hedge do risco de volatilidade. Um benefício adicional deste trabalho é apresentar os riscos e benefícios de se utilizar este instrumento com o BRL.; Volatility risk plays an important role in the management of portfolios of derivative assets as well as portfolios of basic assets. This risk is currently managed in financial markets abroad with the use of several instruments...

The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Díaz, Antonio; Jareño, Francisco; Navarro, Eliseo
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em /07/2011 Português
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Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

How Does Public Information on Central Bank Intervention Strategies Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?

Mundaca, B. Gabriela
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Intervention operations in the foreign exchange market are used by the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru to manage both the level and volatility of their exchange rates. The Banco Central de Reserva del Peru provides information to the market about the specific hours of the day interventions would take place and the total amount of intervention. It consistently buys and sells on the foreign exchange market to avoid large appreciations and depreciations of the Peruvian nuevo sol against the U.S. dollar (Sol/USD), respectively. The estimates in this paper indicate that past information on interventions has moved the sol in the intended direction but only during the time the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru has announced it would be active in the foreign exchange market. The authors also find that the expectation of future interventions by the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru decreases the volatility of the sol when it intervenes to avoid an appreciation of the sol; however, the opposite occurs when the intervention takes place to defend the sol from depreciation. Indeed...

Does Higher Openness Cause More Real Exchange Rate Volatility?

Calderón, César; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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37.785693%
The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" argues that: (a) non-monetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility, and (b) trade and financial openness may have a potential role of mitigating and/or amplifying real and nominal shocks to real exchange rates. The goal of the present paper is to examine the ability of trade and financial openness to exacerbate or mitigate real exchange rate volatility. The authors collected information on the real effective exchange rate, its fundamentals, and (outcome and policy measures of) trade and financial openness for a sample of industrial and developing countries for the period 1975-2005. Using instrumental variables techniques, the analysis finds that: (a) High real exchange rate volatility is the result of highly volatile productivity shocks, and sharp oscillations in monetary and fiscal policy shocks. (b) Countries more integrated with international markets of goods and services tend to display more stable real exchange rate fluctuations. (c) Financial openness seems to amplify the fluctuations in real exchange rates. (d) The composition of trade and capital flows plays a role in explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness. Although the former is mainly driven by manufacturing trade...

The Effect of Capital Flows Composition on Output Volatility

Federico, Pablo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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A large literature has argued that different types of capital flows have different consequences for macroeconomic stability. By distinguishing between foreign direct investment and portfolio and other investments, this paper studies the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. The paper develops a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions that hold in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on the volatilities of both foreign direct investment and portfolio and other inflows. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between both kinds of inflows. Third, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of foreign direct investment in total capital inflows, for low values of that share. The data provide strong support for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility, and after dealing with potential endogeneity problems. These findings call attention to the importance of taking into account the synchronization and composition of capital flows for output stabilization purposes...

Growth Volatility in Paraguay : Sources, Effects, and Options

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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37.915168%
The purpose of the current study is to contribute to a deeper understanding of growth volatility in Paraguay and to provide an input into the discussion on how to better manage it. In particular, the study will ask three questions: i) what are the sources of volatility in Paraguay? ii) How does growth volatility, in particular that arising from the strong dependence on the agricultural sector, impact the rest of the economy? iii) What are optimal policies for managing the types of volatility observed in Paraguay?

Three Essays on Asset Pricing

Wang, Zhiguang
Fonte: FIU Digital Commons Publicador: FIU Digital Commons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Português
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37.70246%
In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results...

Equity, commodity and interest rate volatility derivatives

Balbás, Alejandro; Blanco, Iván; Navarro, Eliseo
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/draft; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2013 Português
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A new methodology to construct synthetic volatility derivatives is presented. The underlying asset price process is very general, since equity, commodities and interest rates are included. The focus is on volatility swaps and volatility swap options, but much more derivatives may be considered. The proposed methods optimize the conditional value at risk of the non-hedged risk, and yields both bid and ask prices, as well as optimal hedging strategies for both purchases and sales. Upper bounds for the broker capital losses under very negative scenarios are given. Numerical experiments are presented so as to illustrate the performance in practice of this new approach.

Volatility derivatives and volatility indexes : an overview

Lopes, Rita Isabel Dória Gameiro
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2014 Português
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Mestrado em Finanças; Nas últimas décadas, os derivados financeiros têm-se revestido de grande importância, como se deduz facilmente do facto de o número de transações nos mercados financeiros envolvendo este tipo de instrumentos apresentar grande crescimento. De entre a grande variedade de derivados, destaca-se, para efeitos deste trabalho, uma classe particular, a classe dos derivados sobre volatilidade, que têm sido objeto de estudo na última década, talvez devido ao papel relativamente significativo que vêm assumindo a nível dos principais mercados. Intimamente ligados aos derivados sobre volatilidade estão os índices sobre volatilidade, também aqui objeto de análise. O presente estudo consiste essencialmente na revisão possível, dadas as restrições de espaço, da vasta literatura que já existe sobre o tema, o que se procurará fazer ao longo de todo o texto. Adicionalmente, procurará levar-se a cabo uma pesquisa do impacte da última crise financeira e económica no volume de negócios com derivados sobre volatilidade, para o que se selecionará um particular tipo de produtos. Do levantamento realizado sobre os tópicos em questão, pareceu poder concluir-se que estes não suscitaram antes o interesse de estudiosos portugueses. Nesse sentido...

Pricing variance and volatility swaps in a stochastic volatility model with regime switching: discrete observations case

Elliott, R.; Lian, G.
Fonte: IOP Publishing Ltd. Publicador: IOP Publishing Ltd.
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2013 Português
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This study presents a set of closed-form exact solutions for pricing discretely sampled variance swaps and volatility swaps, based on the Heston stochastic volatility model with regime switching. In comparison with all the previous studies in the literature, this research, which obtains closed-form exact solutions for variance and volatility swaps with discrete sampling times, serves several purposes. (1) It verifies the degree of validity of Elliott et al.'s [Appl. Math. Finance, 2007, 14(1), 41–62] continuous-sampling-time approximation for variance and volatility swaps of relatively short sampling periods. (2) It examines the effect of ignoring regime switching on pricing variance and volatility swaps. (3) It contributes to bridging the gap between Zhu and Lian's [Math. Finance, 2011, 21(2), 233–256] approach and Elliott et al.'s framework. (4) Finally, it presents a semi-Monte-Carlo simulation for the pricing of other important realized variance based derivatives.; Robert J. Elliott and Guang-Hua Lian

Over the Hedge : Exchange Rate Volatility, Commodity Price Correlations, and the Structure of Trade

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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A long empirical literature has examined the idea that, in the absence of hedging mechanisms, currency risk should have an adverse effect on the export volumes of risk averse exporters. But there are no clear conclusions from this literature, and the current consensus seems to be that there is at most a weak negative effect of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows. However, most of this literature examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows, implicitly assuming a uniform impact of this volatility on exporters across sectors. This paper explots the fact that, if exchange rate volatility is detrimental for trade, firms exporting goods that offer a natural hedge against exchange rate fluctuations -- i.e. those whose international price is negatively correlated with the nominal exchange rate of the country where they operate -- should be relatively benefited in environments of high exchange rate volatility, and capture a larger share of the country's export basket. This hypothesis is tested using detailed data on the composition of trade of 132 countries at 4-digit SITC level. The results show that the commodities that offer natural hedge capture a larger share of a country's export basket when the exchange rate is volatile...

New solvable stochastic volatility models for pricing volatility derivatives

Itkin, Andrey
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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48.1528%
Classical solvable stochastic volatility models (SVM) use a CEV process for instantaneous variance where the CEV parameter $\gamma$ takes just few values: 0 - the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, 1/2 - the Heston (or square root) process, 1- GARCH, and 3/2 - the 3/2 model. Some other models were discovered in \cite{Labordere2009} by making connection between stochastic volatility and solvable diffusion processes in quantum mechanics. In particular, he used to build a bridge between solvable (super)potentials (the Natanzon (super)potentials, which allow reduction of a Schr\"{o}dinger equation to a Gauss confluent hypergeometric equation) and existing SVM. In this paper we discuss another approach to extend the class of solvable SVM in terms of hypergeometric functions. Thus obtained new models could be useful for pricing volatility derivatives (variance and volatility swaps, moment swaps).; Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures, first presented at Global Derivatives & Risk, Paris 2011

Exotic derivatives under stochastic volatility models with jumps

Mijatović, Aleksandar; Pistorius, Martijn
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In equity and foreign exchange markets the risk-neutral dynamics of the underlying asset are commonly represented by stochastic volatility models with jumps. In this paper we consider a dense subclass of such models and develop analytically tractable formulae for the prices of a range of first-generation exotic derivatives. We provide closed form formulae for the Fourier transforms of vanilla and forward starting option prices as well as a formula for the slope of the implied volatility smile for large strikes. A simple explicit approximation formula for the variance swap price is given. The prices of volatility swaps and other volatility derivatives are given as a one-dimensional integral of an explicit function. Analytically tractable formulae for the Laplace transform (in maturity) of the double-no-touch options and the Fourier-Laplace transform (in strike and maturity) of the double knock-out call and put options are obtained. The proof of the latter formulae is based on extended matrix Wiener-Hopf factorisation results. We also provide convergence results.; Comment: Paper contains new convergence results. Section on the fluctuation theory has been extended. To appear in the forthcoming AMaMeF Springer volume. 47 pages, 1 figure

Moment Methods for Exotic Volatility Derivatives

Albanese, Claudio; Osseiran, Adel
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 16/10/2007 Português
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The latest generation of volatility derivatives goes beyond variance and volatility swaps and probes our ability to price realized variance and sojourn times along bridges for the underlying stock price process. In this paper, we give an operator algebraic treatment of this problem based on Dyson expansions and moment methods and discuss applications to exotic volatility derivatives. The methods are quite flexible and allow for a specification of the underlying process which is semi-parametric or even non-parametric, including state-dependent local volatility, jumps, stochastic volatility and regime switching. We find that volatility derivatives are particularly well suited to be treated with moment methods, whereby one extrapolates the distribution of the relevant path functionals on the basis of a few moments. We consider a number of exotics such as variance knockouts, conditional corridor variance swaps, gamma swaps and variance swaptions and give valuation formulas in detail.

Valuation of asset and volatility derivatives using decoupled time-changed L\'evy processes

Torricelli, Lorenzo
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) L\'evy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC L\'evy process is a generalized time-changed L\'evy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scalings; we devise the martingale structure for a DTC L\'evy-driven asset and revisit many popular models which fall under this framework. Postulating different time changes for the underlying L\'evy decomposition allows to introduce asset price models consistent with the assumption of a correlated pair of continuous and jump market activities; we study one illustrative DTC model having this property by assuming that the instantaneous activity rates follow the the so-called Wishart process. The theory developed is applied to the problem of pricing claims depending not only on the price or the volatility of an underlying asset, but also to more sophisticated derivatives that pay-off on the joint performance of these two financial variables, like the target volatility option (TVO). We solve the pricing problem through a Fourier-inversion method; numerical computations validating our technique are provided.; Comment: 30 Pages...

Volatility derivatives in market models with jumps

Mijatovic, A.; Lo, H.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 20/05/2009 Português
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47.674204%
It is well documented that a model for the underlying asset price process that seeks to capture the behaviour of the market prices of vanilla options needs to exhibit both diffusion and jump features. In this paper we assume that the asset price process $S$ is Markov with cadlag paths and propose a scheme for computing the law of the realized variance of the log returns accrued while the asset was trading in a prespecified corridor. We thus obtain an algorithm for pricing and hedging volatility derivatives and derivatives on the corridor-realized variance in such a market. The class of models under consideration is large, as it encompasses jump-diffusion and Levy processes. We prove the weak convergence of the scheme and describe in detail the implementation of the algorithm in the characteristic cases where $S$ is a CEV process (continuous trajectories), a variance gamma process (jumps with independent increments) or an infinite activity jump-diffusion (discontinuous trajectories with dependent increments).; Comment: 27 pages, 3 figures

The $\alpha$-Hypergeometric Stochastic Volatility Model

Da Fonseca, José; Martini, Claude
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 17/09/2014 Português
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The aim of this work is to introduce a new stochastic volatility model for equity derivatives. To overcome some of the well-known problems of the Heston model, and more generally of the affine models, we define a new specification for the dynamics of the stock and its volatility. Within this framework we develop all the key elements to perform the pricing of vanilla European options as well as of volatility derivatives. We clarify the conditions under which the stock price is a martingale and illustrate how the model can be implemented.

Financial Market Volatility and Jumps

Huang, Xin
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: 4659460 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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This dissertation consists of three related chapters that study financial market volatility, jumps and the economic factors behind them. Each of the chapters analyzes a different aspect of this problem. The first chapter examines tests for jumps based on recent asymptotic results. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the daily ratio z-statistic has appropriate size, good power, and good jump detection capabilities revealed by the confusion matrix comprised of jump classification probabilities. Theoretical and Monte Carlo analysis indicate that microstructure noise biases the tests against detecting jumps, and that a simple lagging strategy corrects the bias. Empirical work documents evidence for jumps that account for seven percent of stock market price variance. Building on realized variance and bi-power variation measures constructed from high-frequency financial prices, the second chapter proposes a simple reduced form framework for modelling and forecasting daily return volatility. The chapter first decomposes the total daily return variance into three components, and proposes different models for the different variance components: an approximate long-memory HAR-GARCH model for the daytime continuous variance, an ACH model for the jump occurrence hazard rate...

Currency Derivatives Under a Minimal Market with Random Scaling

Heath, David; Platen, Eckhard
Fonte: World Scientific Publishing Company Publicador: World Scientific Publishing Company
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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This paper uses an alternative, parsimonious stochastic volatility model to describe the dynamics of a currency market for the pricing and hedging of derivatives. Time transformed squared Bessel processes are the basic driving factors of the minimal market model. The time transformation is characterized by a random scaling, which provides for realistic exchange rate dynamics. The pricing of standard European options is studied. In particular, it is shown that the model produces implied volatility surfaces that are typically observed in real markets.