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Estudo de anomalias em modelos de formação de preços e o efeito sobre as empresas de diferentes classificações de risco; A study of asset pricing anomalies and the effect over companies of different credit ratings

Martins, Clarice Carneiro
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 03/09/2014 Português
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Este trabalho procura aprofundar o estudo de anomalias ao CAPM no mercado acionário brasileiro e explorar as relações destas anomalias com a característica dificuldade financeira, a qual é representada pela classificação de risco das empresas, usando estratégias de compra e venda a descoberto baseadas nas anomalias. As anomalias estudadas serão o efeito de momento, momento nos lucros, a volatilidade idiossincrática, o crescimento dos ativos, o investimento em capital e o efeito contrário. Nosso objetivo é examinar o impacto da característica dificuldade financeira sobre o retorno esperado das ações de empresas do grupo de menor classificação de risco. Para cumprir nosso objetivo, inicialmente usamos todas as ações da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa) para comparar estas com a amostra de empresas que possuem classificação de crédito de longo prazo. O período estudado é de Janeiro de 2000 a Dezembro de 2012. Os métodos usados foram baseados em ordenação de carteiras e regressões univariadas e multivariadas de corte transversal. Encontramos algumas evidências de que empresas com classificação de crédito sugerem retornos anormais diferentes daqueles da amostra de todas as empresas. Este resultado foi significante...

The Capm and Fama-French models in Brazil : a comparative study

Chague, Fernando Daniel
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Português
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This paper confronts the Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM - and the 3-Factor Fama-French - FF - model using both Brazilian and US stock market data for the same Sample period (1999-2007). The US data will serve only as a benchmark for comparative purposes. We use two competing econometric methods, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) by (Hansen, 1982) and the Iterative Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (ITNLSUR) by Burmeister and McElroy (1988). Both methods nest other options based on the procedure by Fama-MacBeth (1973). The estimations show that the FF model fits the Brazilian data better than CAPM, however it is imprecise compared with the US analog. We argue that this is a consequence of an absence of clear-cut anomalies in Brazilian data, specially those related to firm size. The tests on the efficiency of the models - nullity of intercepts and fitting of the cross-sectional regressions - presented mixed conclusions. The tests on intercept failed to rejected the CAPM when Brazilian value-premium-wise portfolios were used, contrasting with US data, a very well documented conclusion. The ITNLSUR has estimated an economically reasonable and statistically significant market risk premium for Brazil around 6.5% per year without resorting to any particular data set aggregation. However...

Uma comparação entre os modelos Capm, Fama-French e Fama-French-Carhart

Bodur, Frederico Jungblut
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso Formato: application/pdf
Português
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Esse estudo busca identificar qual modelo de precificação de ativos apresenta melhor desempenho na tarefa de explicar o retorno de ações da bolsa brasileira. Entre os modelos avaliados estão o CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), modelo de três fatores de Fama-French e modelo de quatro fatores de Fama-French-Carhart. O primeiro modelo considera o fator de mercado como único responsável pela diferença de retorno entre ativos financeiros. O segundo modelo é acrescido por dois novos fatores, relacionados ao valor de mercado e a relação entre valor patrimonial e valor de mercado das empresas. No terceiro modelo é adicionado mais um fator, relacionado ao retorno passado das ações. Entre os resultados, pode-se destacar a diferença de retorno médio encontrada para as ações classificadas conforme as características financeiras usadas na construção dos fatores. Ainda, observou-se um acréscimo no poder explicativo dos modelos com mais fatores.; This study seeks to identify which asset pricing model performs better on the task of explaining the return of financial assets of the Brazilian market. Among the evaluated models are the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French three-factor model and Fama-French-Carhart four-factor model. The first model considers the market as the sole factor responsible for the return difference between financial assets. The second model is augmented by two new factors related to market value and the relationship between book value and market value of companies. In the third model is added another factor...

Multidimensional robust control, uncertainty and finance

Rodrigues Júnior, Waldery
Fonte: Universidade de Brasília Publicador: Universidade de Brasília
Tipo: Tese
Português
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Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, 2006.; A teoria do controle ótimo tem sido uma fonte bastante útil de ferramentas para o estudo de problemas econômicos. Um campo mais recente do controle ótimo, denominado controle robusto, tem sido adotado por alguns economista de renome internacional no estudo de problemas econômicos onde há uma preocupação com erros de especificação dos modelos utilizados. Neste caso é possível construir modelagens onde é feita a separação entre elementos de aversão ao risco e aversão à incerteza (Knightiana) e, a partir deste arcabouço teórico, conseguir resolver alguns dos importantes enigmas empíricos de economia e finanças. A maioria dos modelos atuais que levam em consideração esta análise de erros de especificação nos modelos considera uma representação unidimensional para o conceito de incerteza. Esta tese objetiva em construir uma modelagem para o apreçamento de ativos (e para outros problemas econômicos) que seja bidimensional no sentido de permitir a existência de dois parâmetros relacionados a intenção do modelador em ter seus resultados como sendo robustos a erros de especificação. Cada um dos parâmetros é relacionado a dois conceitos econômicos importantes (taxa de desconto e elasticidade de substituição intertemporal) não necessariamente em um correspondência biunívoca entre eles. Esta abordagem permite que sejam explicados dois enigmas: excesso de retorno para ativos arriscados (equiti premium puzzle) e enigma da alta taxa livre de risco (risk-free rate puzzle). O tratamento bidimensional é um passo na tentativa de mostrar a necessidade de uma multidimensionalidade na representação da incerteza econômica. Como um produto adicional a tese define o conceito de Preço Multifatorial da Incerteza Knightiana (Multifactor Price of Knightian Uncertainty –MFPU) que estende um clássico conceito de Preço de Risco de Mercado (Market Price of Risk - MPR). Estes resultados da tese mostram que um modelo com multidimensionalidade para modelos robustos a erros de especificação é um ferramental útil na explicação de anomalias no apreçamento de ativos e...

Momentum and contrarian strategies in the Portuguese stock market

Pereira, Pedro Filipe Silveira Inácio Rodrigues
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Master in Finance Dissertation / JEL Classification System: G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies G12 - Asset Pricing; This thesis studies whether momentum and contrarian strategies are profitable on the Portuguese stock market and whether it is possible to obtain higher returns based on past performance trends. The time period analyzed is 1997-2008. The momentum strategy is based on the under-reaction hypothesis. This suggests that stocks that have had the best (worst) results in the recent past will continue to have better (worse) results in the near future, and therefore a trading strategy that buys winner stocks and sells the losers would provide significant abnormal returns. On the other hand, the contrarian strategy is based on the overreaction hypothesis which assumes the opposite behaviour from stock returns, and hence recommends buying losers and selling winners. Short term strategies show momentum profitability, thus supporting the under-reaction hypothesis. For longer periods, contrarian profitability (and overreaction) is also considerable but not so evident. An “innovative” investment strategy was developed that provides much higher returns than momentum and contrarian strategies. It is based on two upward past trends: if the past returns for the two defined periods preceding the holding period were equal or higher than the percentages defined...

Can reversal be explained by post-earnings announcement drift or momentum?

Correia, Ricardo Noutel de Matos
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2012 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Mestrado em Finanças / JEL Classification System G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, G12 - Asset Pricing , G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; A presente dissertação estuda a relação entre anomalias de curto prazo, momentum e post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), e reversal (estratégia de longo prazo). Há teorias que fundamentam que a hipótese da sub-reacção (momentum e PEAD) é causada pela dificuldade que os investidores têm em interpretar as informações que chegam ao mercado e, consequentemente, em incorporá-las no preço das acções, ou seja, existe um desvio no preço das acções face ao seu preço justo devido à heterogeneidade na forma como os investidores avaliam os preços das acções com base na informação que chega ao mercado. Por outro lado, investidores que seguem apenas tendências de mercado (“trend chasers”), motivados pelas prestações de curto prazo no período de sub-reacção, tendem a levar o preço das acções além do seu justo-valor, criando uma sobre-reacção (reversal) nos preços. Quando os investidores se apercebem que o preço está sobre-avaliado, ou seja, além do seu justo-valor, tendencialmente há uma queda no preço originand...

The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies

LEWELLEN, JONATHAN; NAGEL, STEFAN
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 318782 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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Recent studies suggest that the conditional CAPM might hold, period-by-period, and that time-varying betas can explain the failures of the simple, unconditional CAPM. We argue, however, that significant departures from the unconditional CAPM would require implausibly large time-variation in betas and expected returns. Thus, the conditional CAPM is unlikely to explain asset-pricing anomalies like book-to-market and momentum. We test this conjecture empirically by directly estimating conditional alphas and betas from short-window regressions (avoiding the need to specify conditioning information). The tests show, consistent with our analytical results, that the conditional CAPM performs nearly as poorly as the unconditional CAP

Three essays in finance; 3 essays in finance

He, Li, 1977-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 143 p.
Português
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This thesis consists of three essays on asset pricing. Chapter 1 presents an equilibrium model to study the convergence trading of large hedge funds in segmented markets. The model provides an alternative explanation for the anomaly of a price gap between two fundamentally identical securities. Strategic arbitrageurs, taking into account their price impact, do not close the price gap. This gap makes investors who trade with the strategic arbitrageur less willing to invest in risky assets ex ante. Thus, the gap brings an additional source of risk, anticipation risk. The model predicts that the future price gap is wide when the current trading volume is high. Daily data for Royal Dutch and Shell provides evidence in support of the model. Chapter 2 (coauthored with Joon Chae and Andrew W. Lo) is about stock price behavior. We perform various statistical analyses on stock market returns as Fama (1965) did, using CRSP index returns from 1926-2005. We investigate stock return distributions and report return characteristics. First, stock returns do not follow a normal distribution, though many studies assume this.; (cont.) Second, autocorrelations of stock returns are not zero (as verified by many predictability studies). In addition, the level of autocorrelations varies widely across time. Third...

Modelos de gestão de portfólios e eficiência de mercado

Ortiz, Fernando José Schild
Fonte: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul; Porto Alegre Publicador: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul; Porto Alegre
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
28.718152%
O objetivo deste trabalho é, primeiramente, revisar a Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) e o Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) e apontar os pressupostos comuns adotados pelos dois modelos, quais sejam o de eficiência dos mercados e a utilização da distribuição normal para descrever os retrornos esperados para os ativos. O conceito de eficiência de mercado, sendo um dos pressupostos básicos desses modelos, é também revisado. Uma das mais recentes análises sobre o comportamento dos mercados, a chamada “Teoria das Finanças Comportamentais”, é brevemente discutida no intuito de investigar possíveis fontes de ineficiência. Estudos empíricos já realizados em diferentes mercados para verificar a existência de anomalias são igualmente apresentados. Posteriormente, como objetivo principal do trabalho, são apresentados os resultados de estudos empíricos realizados para testar a hipótese de eficiência no mercado de capitais brasileiro e contribuir para a discussão sobre eficiência de mercado e sobre modelos que se valem desse pressuposto. Posteriormente, são traçadas conclusões sobre os testes realizados e o princípio da transação de frações fixas (optimal f) – um modelo alternativo de construção de portfólios – é mencionado como sugestão para futuras pesquisas.; The primary aim of this work is to review the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) while pointing out the comun assumptions of theses models...

What Do We Know About Stock Market "Efficiency"?

Ball, Ray
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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This paper surveys the development of the term "efficiency" in the context of security prices and reviews the principal definitions of "efficiency" that have been proposed, in terms of their likelihood of forming a basis for guiding and evaluating empirical research on the relation between information and prices. It asks what is presently knowable about efficiency, including the conclusions that can and cannot reliably be drawn from the evidence, given the present state of our knowledge about equilibrium security prices. It concludes with a cautious view on the limited reliable evidence concerning "efficiency".

Idiosyncratic volatility, aggregate volatility risk, and the cross-section of returns

Barinov, Alexander (1981 - ); Schwert, G. William (1950 - )
Fonte: University of Rochester Publicador: University of Rochester
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Number of Pages:ix, 145 leaves
Português
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, 2008.; The first chapter presents a simple real options model that explains why in cross-section high idiosyncratic volatility implies low future returns and why the value effect is stronger for high volatility firms. In the model, high idiosyncratic volatility makes growth options a hedge against aggregate volatility risk. Growth options become less sensitive to the underlying asset value as idiosyncratic volatility goes up. It cuts their betas and saves them from losses in volatile times that are usually recessions. Growth options value also positively depends on volatility. It makes them a natural hedge against volatility increases. In empirical tests, the aggregate volatility risk factor explains the idiosyncratic volatility discount and why it is stronger for growth firms. The aggregate volatility risk factor also partly explains the stronger value effect for high volatility firms. I also find that high volatility and growth firms have much lower betas in recessions than in booms. In the second chapter I show that the aggregate volatility risk factor (the BVIX factor) explains the well-known underperformance of small growth firms. The BVIX factor also reduces the underperformance of IPOs and SEOs by 45% and makes it statistically insignificant. The BVIX factor is unrelated to the investment factor proposed by Lyandres...

Empirical investigations of equity market anomalies in corporate bond and firm returns

Hood, Frederick M. (1976 - ); Long, John B.
Fonte: University of Rochester Publicador: University of Rochester
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Number of Pages:x, 117 leaves
Português
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, 2009.; In this thesis I examine two questions related to corporate debt markets. First, how do corporate bond prices react to firm specific information? Second, are the size and book-to-market premiums found in the cross-section of equity returns due to capital structure risk or asset risk? I utilize a unique set of corporate bond returns from Merrill Lynch to provide answers to both questions. In Chapter 1 I describe the bond data and establish that weekly return distributions derived from the Merrill Lynch prices are similar to both pure transaction data and data from a different pricing service. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence that the Merrill Lynch prices reflect firm specific information and the firm specific information in bond prices contains more information about the mean of the firm’s cash flows than the variance. I find a positive relationship between weekly bond and stock returns using time-series regressions after controlling for market returns. I also examine cumulative abnormal bond returns around earnings surprises and find that bonds react as predicted given the asymmetric nature of their payoff. Bonds with higher relative credit risk react more to earnings surprises. In addition...

Information Asymmetries and Institutional Investor Mandates

Didier, Tatiana
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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The preference among foreign institutional investors for large firms is widely documented. This paper deepens our understanding of international investments by providing evidence that foreign institutional investors with broader investment scopes prefer to invest in firms where they are less prone to information disadvantages than more specialized ones. In other words, there is heterogeneity in how information asymmetries affect investors' portfolio choices. Theoretically, a model with costly information and short-selling constraints shows that the broader the investor's mandate, the smaller the incentives to gather and process costly information. Empirically, an analysis of the mutual fund industry in the United States supports this hypothesis.

Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Corporate Bond Spread as a Proxy for Default Risk

Anginer, Deniz; Yildizhan, Celim
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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Although financial theory suggests a positive relationship between default risk and equity returns, recent empirical papers find anomalously low returns for stocks with high probabilities of default. The authors show that returns to distressed stocks previously documented are really an amalgamation of anomalies associated with three stock characteristics -- leverage, volatility and profitability. In this paper they use a market based measure -- corporate credit spreads -- to proxy for default risk. Unlike previously used measures that proxy for a firm's real-world probability of default, credit spreads proxy for a risk-adjusted (or a risk-neutral) probability of default and thereby explicitly account for the systematic component of distress risk. The authors show that credit spreads predict corporate defaults better than previously used measures, such as, bond ratings, accounting variables and structural model parameters. They do not find default risk to be significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. There is also no evidence of firms with high default risk delivering anomalously low returns.

Bad Beta, Good Beta

Campbell, John; Vuolteenaho, Tuomo
Fonte: American Economic Association Publicador: American Economic Association
Português
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This paper explains the size and value "anomalies" in stock returns using an economically motivated two-beta model. We break the beta of a stock with the market portfolio into two components, one reflecting news about the market's future cash flows and one reflecting news about the market's discount rates. Intertemporal asset pricing theory suggests that the former should have a higher price of risk; thus beta, like cholesterol, comes in "had" and "good" varieties. Empirically, we find that value stocks and small stocks have considerably higher cash-flow betas than growth stocks and large stocks, and this can explain their higher average returns. The poor performance of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) since 1963 is explained by the fact that growth stocks and high-past-beta stocks have predominantly good betas with low risk prices.; Economics

A two-Factor Asset Pricing Model and the Fat Tail Distribution of Firm Sizes

Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 03/02/2007 Português
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In the standard equilibrium and/or arbitrage pricing framework, the value of any asset is uniquely specified from the belief that only the systematic risks need to be remunerated by the market. Here, we show that, even for arbitrary large economies when the distribution of the capitalization of firms is sufficiently heavy-tailed as is the case of real economies, there may exist a new source of significant systematic risk, which has been totally neglected up to now but must be priced by the market. This new source of risk can readily explain several asset pricing anomalies on the sole basis of the internal-consistency of the market model. For this, we derive a theoretical two-factor model for asset pricing which has empirically a similar explanatory power as the Fama-French three-factor model. In addition to the usual market risk, our model accounts for a diversification risk, proxied by the equally-weighted portfolio, and which results from an ``internal consistency factor'' appearing for arbitrary large economies, as a consequence of the concentration of the market portfolio when the distribution of the capitalization of firms is sufficiently heavy-tailed as in real economies. Our model rationalizes the superior performance of the Fama and French three-factor model in explaining the cross section of stock returns: the size factor constitutes an alternative proxy of the diversification factor while the book-to-market effect is related to the increasing sensitivity of value stocks to this factor.; Comment: 38 pages including 7 tables and 3 figures