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Characterization of the household electricity consumption in the EU, potential energy savings and specific policy recommendations

Almeida, Aníbal de; Fonseca, Paula; Schlomann, Barbara; Feilberg, Nicolai
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Although significant improvements in energy efficiency have been achieved in home appliances and lighting, the electricity consumption in the European Union household has increased by 2% per year during the past 10 years. Some reasons are associated with an increased degree of basic comfort and level of amenities and with the widespread utilisation of new types of loads. Wishing to increase the understanding of the energy consumption in the EU households for the different types of equipment including the consumers’ behaviour and comfort levels, and to identify demand trends, an energy monitoring campaign, was carried out in 12 geographically representative EU countries, accompanied by a lifestyle survey. From the measurements carried out it was concluded that Information Technologies and entertainment loads are key contributors to the power demand. In basically all types of loads there is wide range of performance levels in the models available in the market. Available technology, associated with responsible consumer behaviour, can reduce wasteful consumption. Based on a bottom up approach the European residential sector potential electricity savings that can be implemented by existing technologies and improved behaviour can reach 48%. The paper presents policy recommendations promoting market transformation and behavioural changes in the equipment selection and operation.

Comparação de métodos de estimação de modelos de apreçamento de ativos; Comparison of methods for estimation of asset pricing models

Silva Neto, Aníbal Emiliano da
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 14/08/2012 Português
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O objetivo deste trabalho é comparar diferentes formas de estimação de modelos de apreçamento de ativos. Além dos métodos tradicionais, que utilizam toda a amostra no processo de estimação dos parâmetros do modelo, será utilizado o método rolling, que estima os parâmetros através da utilização de janelas móveis de tamanho fixo. Com isso, utilizando a técnica de backtesting, procura-se averiguar se o método rolling proporciona um ganho na qualidade de ajuste em modelos de apreçamento de ativos.; The aim of this project is to compare methods of estimating asset pricing models. In addition to using traditional methods, which estimate the models parameters by using the entire sample at once, the rolling method will be used. This method estimates the models parameters by using a rolling window of fixed size through the sample. By using backtesting, we seek to investigate whether the rolling approach provides an improvement in the goodness of fit in asset pricing models.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Costa, Carlos E. da; Issler, João Victor; Matos, Paulo F.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67087%
Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)’s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The Forward- and the Equity-Premium Puzzles: Two Symptoms of the Same Illness?

Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Issler, João Victor; Matos, Paulo F.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74014%
Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by comparing this out-of-sample results with the one obtained performing an in-sample exercise, where the return-based SDF captures sources of risk of a representative set of developed and emerging economies government bonds. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The Forward- and the Equity-Premium Puzzles: A Straightforward Test of Whether They Are Two Symptoms of the Same Illness

Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Issler, João Victor; Matos, Paulo F.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67087%
We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

A Note on the Forward- and the Equity-Premium Puzzles: Two Symptoms of the Same Illness?

Costa, Carlos E. da; Issler, João Victor; Matos, Paulo F.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67087%
We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

On positional consumption and technological innovation - an agent-based approach

Bernardino, João; Araújo, Tanya
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia. Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia.
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2010 Português
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Positional behavior is a source of externalities and sets limits to wellbeing. Remedies against this market failure are defended by some authors and rejected by others, while the core of the discussion rests on the bene ts and costs of applying economic instruments. One of the issues discussed is the role that the competition for positional goods may have in generating technological innovation. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of this process by analyzing an agent-based model. We observe a plausible structure of the dynamics behind the process of generation of technological innovation by positional consumption and obtain results on the influence of some key factors on the pace of innovation, particularly those of income inequality, the Hirsch conjecture of relative increase of positional consumption with affluence, and consumer network and social neighborhood sizes.

On Positional Consumption and Technological Innovation - an Agent-based Approach

Bernardino, João; Araújo, Tanya
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2010 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
47.236763%
Positional behavior is a source of externalities and sets limits to wellbeing. Remedies against this market failure are defended by some authors and rejected by others, while the core of the discussion rests on the benefits and costs of applying economic instruments. One of the issues discussed is the role that the competition for positional goods may have in generating technological innovation. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of this process by analyzing an agent-based model. We observe a plausible structure of the dynamics behind the process of generation of technological innovation by positional consumption and obtain results on the influence of some key factors on the pace of innovation, particularly those of income inequality, the Hirsch conjecture of relative increase of positional consumption with affluence, and consumer network and social neighborhood sizes.

Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

Campbell, John; Cochrane, John
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Publicador: Blackwell Publishing
Português
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47.612075%
We show that the external habit-formation model economy of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) can explain why the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its extensions are betterapproximate asset pricing models than is the standard onsumption-based model. The model economy produces time-varying expected eturns, tracked by the dividend–price ratio. Portfolio-based models capture some of this variation in state variables, which a state-independent function of consumption cannot capture. Therefore, though the consumption-based model and CAPM are both perfect conditional asset pricing models, the portfolio-based models are better approximate unconditional asset pricing models.; Economics

A Statistical Model of Vehicle Emissions and Fuel Consumption

Cappiello, Alessandra; Chabini, Ismail; Lue, Alessandro; Zeid, Maya Abou; Nam, Edward K.
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Formato: 590971 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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Many vehicle emission models are overly simple, such as the speed dependent models used widely, and other models are sufficiently complicated as to require excessive inputs and calculations, which can slow down computational time. We develop and implement an instantaneous statistical model of emissions (CO2, CO, HC, and NOx) and fuel consumption for light-duty vehicles, which is simplified from the physical loadbased approaches that are gaining in popularity. The model is calibrated for a set of vehicles driven on standard as well as aggressive driving cycles. The model is validated on another driving cycle in order to test its estimation capabilities. The preliminary results indicate that the model gives reasonable results compared to actual measurements as well as to results obtained with CMEM, a well-known load-based emission model. Furthermore, the results indicate that the model runs fast and is relatively simple to calibrate. The model presented can be integrated with a variety of traffic models to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of traffic emissions and assess the impact of ITS traffic management strategies on travel times, emissions, and fuel consumption.; Ford Motor Company through the Ford-MIT Alliance.

Small Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty : Validation and Applications

Christiaensen, Luc; Lanjouw, Peter; Luoto, Jill; Stifel, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time -- an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.

Esscher transforms and consumption-based models

Badescu, A.; Elliott, R.; Siu, T.
Fonte: Elsevier Science BV Publicador: Elsevier Science BV
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2009 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
87.72004%
The Esscher transform is an important tool in actuarial science. Since the pioneering work of Gerber and Shiu (1994), the use of the Esscher transform for option valuation has also been investigated extensively. However, the relationships between the asset pricing model based on the Esscher transform and some fundamental equilibrium-based asset pricing models, such as consumption-based models, have so far not been well-explored. In this paper, we attempt to bridge the gap between consumption-based models and asset pricing models based on Esscher-type transformations in a discrete-time setting. Based on certain assumptions for the distributions of asset returns, changes in aggregate consumptions and returns on the market portfolio, we construct pricing measures that are consistent with those arising from Esscher-type transformations. Explicit relationships between the market price of risk, and the risk preference parameters are derived for some particular cases.; http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505554/description#description; Alex Badescu, Robert J. Elliott and Tak Kuen Siu

Priorização de fármacos em água destinada ao consumo humano baseada em avaliação da toxicidade e do comportamento ambiental por  meio de modelos computacionais (in silico) para fins de gestão ambiental; Prioritization of pharmaceuticals in water intended for human consumption based on toxicity and environmental fate assessment by in silico models for environmental management purposes

Santos, Carlos Eduardo Matos dos
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/04/2015 Português
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Introdução: É cada vez mais preocupante a escassez de água e a qualidade dos recursos hídricos. Nas últimas décadas diversos estudos têm apontado a presença de fármacos em água destinada ao consumo humano, caracterizando a existência de rotas de exposição que podem representar riscos para a saúde humana e meio ambiente. Devido a escassez de dados sobre o comportamento ambiental e toxicidade na exposição crônica a baixas doses a fármacos, sua ocorrência em água é uma preocupação para comunidade científica, reguladores e população. Diversos estudos recentes têm sugerido critérios para a definição de fármacos prioritários, ou seja, abordagens com componentes ou fatores que atribuem grau de relevância aos contaminantes. Devido aos altos custos e necessidade de testes adicionais, uma das alternativas propostas para avaliação do comportamento ambiental e toxicidade têm sido os modelos in silico. Objetivos: Estudar o comportamento ambiental e o potencial de toxicidade de ingredientes farmacêuticos ativos(IFAs) para fins de identificação de contaminantes prioritários por meio da aplicação de ferramentas computacionais e modelos in silico. Métodos: Foram selecionados fármacos considerados relevantes para o Brasil conforme critérios de inclusão específicos. Para os fármacos selecionados...

An inquiry into the disaggregotion of Consumption measures in forecasting total of consumption

Kosev, Mitch
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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Consumption forecasting has provided economists with a great challenge. It seems that the models developed cannot predict consumption with any real accuracy. Whether this is due to unreasonably high expectations or extremely poor forecasts, is another matter altogether. The fact remains, that there is much still to learn about consumption. Consumption analysis is vital as an indicator of welfare and a signal of economic health. This implies that accurate consumption forecasts can provide invaluable information to governments, investors and the population more broadly. This has prompted an investigation into the power of an alternative consumption forecasting approach. Specifically, the analysis examines the accuracy of forecasting consumption by disaggregating the measure into durable, non-durable and services components. It is expected that these components are driven by different factors, causing the variability of each to differ. Thus, it is hypothesised that through modelling each of these components separately and combining the estimates, a far more accurate forecast of total consumption can be obtained. This approach to forecasting total consumption has not been found in reviewing the consumption forecasting literature. While components of consumption have been investigated...

Exploiting Market-Based Mechanisms to Meet Utilities' Energy Efficiency Obligations

Sinton, Jonathan; de Wit, Joeri
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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Electric utilities are key actors in the quest to induce large-scale energy savings among end users. But often it is not enough simply to mandate utilities to achieve a specific target. Three new market-based mechanisms are available for utilities to use in promoting energy efficiency. Historically, mechanisms of demand-side management may be classified as regulatory, policy-based, market-based, and load-targeting. This knowledge note is important, because electric utilities are well-positioned to help raise energy efficiency. The three new market-based mechanisms to help achieve this goal include Establish a white certificates scheme establishing a white certificates scheme, establishing energy efficiency auctions, and establishing energy efficiency feed-in tariffs. These new market-based models are available for utilities to use in promoting energy efficiency, in concert with other means of procurement. Whatever the design, program effectiveness will depend on technically competent and trusted verification of energy savings and their costs...

The Forward- and the Equity-Premium Puzzles: Two Symptoms of the Same Illness?

Costa, Carlos Eugênio da; Issler, João Victor; Matos, Paulo F.
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67087%
We build a pricing kernel using only US domestic assets data and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our stochastic discount factor as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)'s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

Impacto de variáveis meteorológicas nos padrões de consumo de água no noroeste de Portugal; The impact of meteorological variables on the water consumption patterns in the northwest Portugal

Oliveira, Diana Isabel da Silva
Fonte: Universidade do Minho Publicador: Universidade do Minho
Tipo: Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso
Publicado em //2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
57.630376%
Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil; Na conjuntura atual, é da maior importância a definição de planos estratégicos no respeitante aos sistemas de abastecimento de água, garantindo a regularização na distribuição da mesma e uma melhor gestão dos recursos hídricos. A projeção dos consumos de água é um grande fator de ponderação na atividade das entidades responsáveis, permitindo uma gestão da água integrada e flexível a ocorrências naturais ou operacionais. A variação meteorológica surge como um dos fatores de maior influência no comportamento dos consumos de água. A relação entre ambos os parâmetros permite tirar ilações sobre o impacto causado pela variação da temperatura, da humidade relativa do ar e da precipitação sobre os volumes de água consumidos em dada região. O presente estudo tem em vista a concretização de modelos de projeção de consumos de água com base em variáveis meteorológicas. A amostra estatística assenta em dados cronológicos de volumes de água facultados pela concessionária Águas do Noroeste e em registos meteorológicos referentes à temperatura, humidade relativa do ar e precipitação. No decorrer da investigação foi realizada uma análise estatística individual das variáveis envolvidas e do grau de relacionamento das mesmas entre si. A sua interpretação permitiu estabelecer o contraste entre os diversos municípios do noroeste. O método de projeção adotado foi a regressão linear múltipla...

Duality, thermodynamics, and the linear programming problem in constraint-based models of metabolism

Warren, Patrick B.; Jones, Janette L.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.915874%
It is shown that the dual to the linear programming problem that arises in constraint-based models of metabolism can be given a thermodynamic interpretation in which the shadow prices are chemical potential analogues, and the objective is to minimise free energy consumption given a free energy drain corresponding to growth. The interpretation is distinct from conventional non-equilibrium thermodynamics, although it does satisfy a minimum entropy production principle. It can be used to motivate extensions of constraint-based modelling, for example to microbial ecosystems.; Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, RevTeX 4, final accepted version

Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis.

Martin, Niall P. D.; Bishop, Justin D. K.; Choudhary, Ruchi; Boies, Adam M.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; published version
Português
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47.346016%
This is the author accepted mansucript. The final version is available via Elsevier at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.044; Vehicle manufacturers are required to reduce their European sales-weighted emissions to 95 g CO2/km by 2020, with the aim of reducing on-road fleet fuel consumption. Nevertheless, current fuel consumption models are not suited for the European market and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast passenger vehicle energy-use. Therefore, a new methodology is detailed herein to quantify new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) is shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark (SI) and Compression Ignition (CI) vehicles by an average of 16% and 13%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to differences in rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances. Using projected inputs for engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio, the likely average 2020 on-road fuel consumption was estimated to be 7.6 L/100 km for SI and 6.4 L/100 km for CI vehicles. These compared to NEDC based estimates of 5.34 L/100 km (SI) and 4.28 L/100 km (CI), both of which exceeded mandatory 2020 fuel equivalent emissions standards by 30.2% and 18.9%...

The epistemological value of the consumption based capital asset pricing model

Bjorheim, Jacob
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 10/07/2014 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The thesis is a philosophical analysis of the consumption based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM), investigating in particular its epistemological and methodological foundations. Financial markets are integral parts of advanced and developing economies. They matter because they channel unspent household income into banks’ savings accounts and assets such as bonds and stocks. Financial economists have traditionally taken interest in the pricing mechanism that underlies this capital allocation. The consumption based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) is a prominent effort to describe, explain and predict such prices. It tells a story of investors’ trade-off between consumption now and later and which portfolio of assets to hold. The CCAPM based narrative intuitively makes sense, and the chosen methodology involving theoretical assumption, mathematical models and empirical tests follows the professions’ standards of good scientific practise. But does CCAPM’s research programme provide knowledge for use? My thesis seeks to answer this question in a novel way. Instead of embarking on yet another asset pricing research project, I let Philosophy of Science inform my analysis. Following a “primer” introducing essential CCAPM topics and notations...